The Premier League title race is set to once again be tightly fought out at the top of the table as champions Manchester City attempt to hunt down runaway leaders Arsenal.
Pep Guardiola’s City had to hold off competition from Liverpool last season but the Reds are nowhere near the jostling for first place, with the Gunners – led by Mikel Arteta – looking to break the holders’ status quo grip on the title.
FiveThirtyEight uses its Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings to predict every fixture throughout the Premier League season. The current standings hint at a closely fought remainder of the season.
It could come down to goal difference to separate Arsenal and Manchester City at the top of the league, with both currently predicted to end up on 83 points.
There may also be some changes in the Champions League placings. Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham all ended up in the top four last year but are each enduring tough seasons. Manchester United are currently the favourites to take third, coming out with 71 predicted points.
Newcastle continue to make strides under Eddie Howe and the goals of Miguel Almiron have powered them to a projected finish of fourth, where they’d sit just ahead of Liverpool in fifth. Instead of the top four, Tottenham will be holding off the likes of Brighton and Chelsea for sixth.
Should Brentford finish ninth as currently predicted, it would become their new best finish, eclipsing last season when they came 13th. Fulham squeeze into the top ten in a remarkable achievement for Marco Silva, while there’s the mid-table obscurity of 11th and 12th for Aston Villa and Crystal Palace respectively.
Leicester, West Ham and Leeds are predicted to ease away from the relegation zone, but there’s little to separate the bottom five.
Southampton and Wolves are currently predicted to avoid the drop in 16th and 17th, though Wolves have the same amount of points as Everton, who take the first relegation spot. The Toffees did pull off a dramatic escape last term after Frank Lampard replaced Rafa Benitez, but some abysmal results against Bournemouth, Wolves and Brighton have plunged the club back into uncertainty.
Bournemouth themselves sit outside of the relegation zone at present but aren’t expected to stave off the drop, dropping back down to the Championship with 33 points. They’ll be joined in England’s second tier by Nottingham Forest, who are predicted to end up with 32 points and finish bottom.
Manchester City: Pep could ditch Phillips by signing Rice
Manchester City are interested in West Ham United star Declan Rice stemming back to reports from October 2022 and his potential arrival at the Etihad could allow Pep Guardiola to get rid of summer flop Kalvin Phillips.
According to ExWHUEmployee (via Caught Offside), West Ham are still keen on the England international having failed to sign him from Leeds United in the summer.
He said: “Kalvin Phillips is someone that West Ham, David Moyes especially, 100% rates. I know categorically, factually, that we spoke about signing him in the summer and in January before that, that we really, really wanted [him].
“I get the feeling that patience is running thin with him and I’ve always said that it wouldn’t surprise me if Man City were to offer Phillips in exchange for Rice at the end of the season.”
This could be an ideal opportunity for Guardiola to get rid of a player who has failed to start a single game in Manchester City colours since his £45m switch in 2022, while also bringing in one of the world’s most exciting midfield talents.
Phillips has endured a number of injury problems since signing his £150k-per-week contract at the Etihad but was still deemed fit enough to travel to the World Cup in Qatar, but returned “overweight” in the words of his manager, and hasn’t featured since.
£150m-valued Rice, meanwhile, is desperate to play in the Champions League and looks unlikely to achieve that dream at the London Stadium, given that the Hammers are currently embroiled in a relegation battle after a shocking start to the season.
If we compare Rice’s stats from last season to Phillips’ stats from the same campaign, it seems clear that the 23-year-old would be a big upgrade at the Etihad.
Rice averaged a 7.10 rating from WhoScored for his performances in the Premier League, compared to his England teammate’s measly 6.45 average rating.
He also averaged more interceptions (1.8 vs 1.2), key passes (0.7 vs 0.5) and dribbles per game (1.4 vs 0.4), which suggests that he is a far better all-round package in midfield.
Fabrizio Romano has previously described Rice as “untouchable” in the transfer window but the Hammers captain’s reluctance to sign a new deal, as well as the Irons’ interest in Phillips, could just give City the edge in any potential deal for the England star this year.
Source: 90min.com;
