Darwin Nunez scored from a clear-cut chance at Newcastle and has been creating them at a good rate too
Harry Kane has been earning plaudits galore in 2022/23. He recently became Tottenham Hotspur’s all-time leading goal scorer, and he would also be leading the Premier League’s Golden Boot race if it were not for the ridiculous campaign Erling Haaland is enjoying.
Irrespective of that impossible competition, the England captain has reached the 17-goal mark for the ninth Premier League campaign in a row. It’s a remarkable level of consistency, and has long since put paid to the ‘one season wonder’ jibes he faced early in his career.
Kane is also one of the most creative forwards in the English top flight, as was recently noted by Matchday365. They tweeted that he set up the most (Opta-defined) big chances among Premier League strikers in 2020/21 (14), then more than any player in any position last season (19). His total of nine so far this term was given as the most among strikers once again. The problem there is that Darwin Nunez (and others) will have something to say about that.
The Uruguayan has also set up nine clear-cut chances in the league this season, as have Haaland and Ivan Toney. However, it should be noted that Nunez has had less game time than his fellow creative forwards, and only a little over half as much as Kane.
The former Benfica man has created a big chance every 124 minutes in his Premier League career, a truly elite rate. Across the last 11 completed seasons, there have been 246 instances of a player fashioning at least nine golden opportunities, but only 10 of someone doing so more frequently than Nunez.
That four of them were Kevin De Bruyne shows the level we’re talking about here. Equally, the fact four players (including Trent Alexander-Arnold) are going at a better rate this term suggests Nunez and the others may cool off as it has been such a rare benchmark to hit in the past.
Whatever happens, it won’t diminish the decent start the Uruguay international has made with Liverpool. The parallel with Kane grows stronger when we look at the number of clear-cut chances players have had themselves, as the pair are tied on 21 apiece.
The group of Premier League players with that many big chance shots who have also created at least nine is a small pool of just 36 examples between 2011/12 and 2021/22. Mohamed Salah has been the most consistent, hitting these marks in all five previous seasons with Liverpool, while Kane, Sadio Mane and Jamie Vardy have achieved this three times.
For Nunez to be in there at all after little over half a season is impressive enough. His rate of a direct involvement in a clear-cut chance every 37 minutes is better than what anyone has managed in the past, though, and even a shade above Haaland’s figure of 39 this season.
With matching underlying numbers for top quality chances, it’s little wonder Kane and Nunez have had similar campaigns in a lot of ways. The former has averaged 0.15 more non-penalty goals per 90 minutes while the latter has a 0.16 edge on assists (per FBRef). Combine the figures and only six players with at least as many minutes as the Liverpool man have better pro-rata outputs in 2022/23.
None of this is to suggest Nunez is better than Kane, nor that he will ever score as many goals as the Tottenham man. It will take a decade of consistent elite performance to do that, after all. But in a lot of ways, the Liverpool striker is having just as good a season as a player who is receiving much more credit, and may be on a similar trajectory for the years ahead. It’s fascinating to see where Darwin goes from here.
